Economic Misery across MENA Economies: A Comparative and Statistical Analysis

Abstract

The Misery Index, originally proposed by Okun (1970), remains one of the most widely used composite indicators for measuring macroeconomic distress by combining inflation and unemployment rates. Despite its extensive application in individual country studies and international comparisons, comprehensive long-term analyses of economic misery across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region remain limited. This study investigates economic disparities among MENA countries using the original Okun Misery Index over the period 1991–2023. Annual inflation and unemployment data obtained from the World Bank and other international databases are employed to calculate the Misery Index for each country. In addition to descriptive and comparative analyses, the study applies a one-way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) to examine whether statistically significant differences exist among three groups of MENA economies: oil-exporting countries, diversified economies, and conflict-affected economies. The descriptive findings indicate that Lebanon, Syria, and Iran consistently recorded the highest levels of economic misery in recent years, whereas Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates exhibited the lowest levels. The ANOVA results reveal statistically significant differences among the three groups (F = 45.38, p < .001), while Tukey's post-hoc analysis confirms that conflict-affected economies experience significantly higher economic misery than both oil-exporting and diversified economies. The findings suggest that prolonged political instability and armed conflict exert a greater influence on economic hardship than differences in economic structure alone. The study contributes to the literature by providing one of the longest comparative analyses of economic misery in the MENA region and offers policy implications for improving macroeconomic stability and reducing regional disparities.